Greetings from golf gambling headquarters, where last week we got burned on a few matchups but salvaged things thanks to win No. 5 for Phil Mickelson at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
We’re on to the Genesis Open at Riviera after nailing a top-10 finish for Mickelson at +220 odds at Pebble. We finished -90 tokens for the week (editors note: our season bankroll will henceforth be referred to as tokens rather than units to avoid confusion with popular gambling vernacular), our first losing week of the season.
We’re still +482 tokens for the season and don’t believe wallowing in self pity helps matters, so it’s time to pick ourselves up off the mat and get back to pre-established winning ways at Riviera.
Here are my favorite bets for the 2019 Genesis Open. All odds courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas and Points Bet.
Hideki Matsuyama (-120) over Jordan Spieth
Risking 120 to win 100 on Hideki. We continue to be extremely discouraged by Spieth and impressed with Matsuyama over the past few months. Spieth looked like he was ready to turn the corner and got within two shots of the lead at Pebble Beach, only to shoot 74-75 over the weekend and tumble to a T-45. Spieth has been pretty solid at Riv, but outside of a promising start at Pebble there’s not much reason to believe he’s ready make serious noise yet. Matsuyama is rounding into form with a T-3 at Torrey Pines and T-15 in Phoenix, and he likes Riv with three top-25 finishes in his last four starts. We could spend all day overthinking this one, but the easy answer is to trust Matsuyama’s consistency and take advantage of Spieth’s soul-searching process.
Adam Scott (-115) over Marc Leishman
Risking 115 to win 100 on Scott. Listen, we’re huge Marc Leishman fans around these parts. He’s a consistently solid player and comes across as a great dude. We just like what we’ve seen from Scott lately and trust his history here, with four top-10 finishes and a win in 10 career starts. Leishman has been putting results on the board all season, but this course gives him fits with three missed cuts in his last four starts. Granted, he was T-5 in 2016, so do with that what you will. But we’re confident Scott will be ready to go this week and think Leishman is a play best saved for another week.
Scott Stallings (+110) over Chez Reavie
Risking 100 to win 110 on Stallings. He might not be a household name, but Stallings is coming off a solo third at Pebble Beach and scored a T-4 at Riviera a year ago. Reavie has posted the far stronger results overall this season, but he’s just really bad in this event with five missed cuts over his past seven starts. Reavie is usually a sneaky-good play as far as we’re concerned, but not at this venue.
Last week: -90 tokens
Season total: +480 tokens