ORLANDO – The Florida swing is ramping up big-time at this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, where Tiger Woods’ absence has been somewhat alleviated by a largely strong field.
Only went with two Honda Classic matchups last week and had a tough-luck split, going 1-1. We had a no-sweat winner with Byeong-Hun An advancing to the weekend to beat Luke List, who missed the cut. We also lost out on our Adam Scott over Gary Woodland pick when Woodland made a 15-foot birdie putt on No. 18 in Round 2 to make the cut.
So the week was a total wash, which leaves our season total safe at +575 tokens.
We obviously have our eyes on a few plays at Bay Hill – Only fitting, as Arnold Palmer doesn’t strike us as the type of man to shy away from a friendly wager when the mood struck.
Walking around the Bay Hill Club and Lodge and surrounding neighborhood always feels like going back in time. It seems many of the details and nuances here have remained untouched for decades. It might not be the greatest golf course on Tour, nor the most prestigious event of the year, but it is unquestionably its own, special week without equal.
Now forget all of that, because betting with your heart or nostalgia in mind isn’t the way to go. Wagers count the same at the API as they do at the Barbasol Championship, and we’re going to set those warm, fuzzy feelings aside to focus on profit.
Here are my favorite bets for the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational. All odds courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas and Points Bet.
Charles Howell III (-125) over Bubba Watson
Risking 125 to win 100 on Orlando resident Howell over the big lefty. Watson’s API resume is an impressive one, but the results just haven’t been the same in recent years. He was T-66 last year, T-34 in 2017 and withdrew in 2016. Howell III has been one of the most consistent players on Tour of late, which matches perfectly with his career at Bay Hill. He’s made the cut in 14 consecutive appearances, including a T-14 last year, and he’s finished top-20 in five of six starts in 2019. Love consistency on weeklong matchup bets for golf, and we’re feeling good about Howell this week.
Patrick Reed (+125) over Tommy Fleetwood
Risking 100 to win 125 on Reed. We’re looking at this matchup as a toss-up and will definitely take the attractive underdog odds with Reed. He returned to Bay Hill last year for the first time since 2014 and finished T-7. He’s also been in a groove lately and playing a ton, and he’s been top-25 or better in all six PGA Tour starts in 2019. Fleetwood is a strong player with good Bay Hill results as well, a T-26 last year and T-10 in 2017. He’s also only made three stateside starts in 2019, and a T-19 two weeks ago in Mexico City is the strongest result. We’re already excited to bet Fleetwood at a lot of the big events this season, because he brings his A-game to the majors. The same can be said for Reed, and we’re just a little more comfortable with his current form and love the value here.
Last week: Even
Season total: +575 tokens