AT&T Byron Nelson: Top gambling picks and betting odds

Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

AT&T Byron Nelson: Top gambling picks and betting odds

PGA Tour

AT&T Byron Nelson: Top gambling picks and betting odds

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Greetings, golf gambling enthusiasts. Who’s ready for some action in the Lone Star State?

We’re feeling good entering the week after a successful Wells Fargo showing, where we finished +155 tokens thanks to a few wise plays. We saw a ton of value on Joel Dahmen as a slight underdog in his matchup with Chez Reavie, and Dahmen nearly won the whole thing with a solo second finish.

Keith Mitchell also made us look good with a top-10 finish, as wagered upon. We regret not getting more action on Dahmen because his sneaky-good season doesn’t look so sneaky anymore.

Anyways, that puts us up to +558 tokens for the season and we’re looking to build the bank roll up again this week ahead of the PGA Championship action.

We usually rely pretty heavily on a player’s course history with the individual matchups and it won’t do any good this week, with the Byron Nelson played at Trinity Forest for just the second time. It’s a links-style layout and one of the most unique courses these guys will play all year, so we’ll proceed with caution on this week’s bets.

Here are my top bets for the 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson. All odds courtesy of OddsShark and Points Bet.

Henrik Stenson (-120) over Patrick Reed

120 tokens

Risking 120 to win 100 on Stenson. These are nuanced greens and precise irons play is a must this week. Stenson ranks first on Tour in Strokes Gained approach-the-green, whereas Reed is near the bottom of the pack at 129th. Reed seems to have found his way out of a nasty slump but isn’t quite there yet, falling down the board with a final-round 74 at Quail Hollow. We do believe Reed is trending in the right direction and will have off-the-radar value soon, and we know this is a home game for him. Stenson still seems like the smarter pick at Trinity Forest.

Jordan Spieth (+160) over Brooks Koepka

100 tokens

Speaking of smart plays, here’s one that looks dumb on the surface (and might actually be dumb above and below the surface. We’ll get back to you on Sunday). Risking 100 to win 160 on Spieth. First and foremost, we liked what we saw from Spieth at Augusta National. He fought hard to make the cut and played better than the score indicated. The slump is definitely concerning and it’s shocking to see him at No. 39 in the Official World Golf Ranking, behind names like Eddie Pepperell, Haotong Li and Alex Noren, to name a few. He insists he’s staying patient, but there has to be some sense of urgency ahead of his Career Grand Slam bid at the PGA Championship. Especially at a tournament that’s meant so much to him over the years. Koepka said this week he hadn’t touched a club since New Orleans, which isn’t unusual for him, but he uses these major lead-in weeks to get back in rhythm above all else. It doesn’t sound like a very results-oriented process. We also think Spieth’s course-management skills will suit him well this week, and there’s just enough value at +160 to get us to bite.

Ryan Moore to finish top-10 (+400)

25 tokens

Risking 25 to win 200 on Moore. He’s doing everything well lately and ranks 16th on Tour in Strokes Gained overall, with two top-10 finishes and a solo third last month at the Valero Texas Open.

Last week: +155

Season total: +558

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