Safeway Open: Betting odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets

Brian Spurlock/USA TODAY Sports

Safeway Open: Betting odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets

Fantasy

Safeway Open: Betting odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets

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The third event of the 2019-20 PGA Tour season takes place this week with the Safeway Open at Silverado Resort and Spa in Napa, California. The par-72, 7,166-yard venue has hosted a PGA Tour tournament annually since the beginning of the 2015-16 season.

My key stats for this week, built off of historical data from Fantasy National and Data Golf are:

  • Strokes Gained: Par 5s
  • Proximity from 175-200 Yards
  • Greens in Regulation Gained
  • Opportunities Gained
  • Strokes Gained: Approach

Safeway Open – Tier 1

Odds provided by BetMGM; for a full-set of today’s sports betting odds, access them at USA TODAY Sports.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1600)

Matsuyama ranks fourth by the odds this week, but he’s just 26th by the Official World Golf Ranking, making him the seventh-best golfer in the field by the measure.

Despite being slightly overpriced, Matsuyama is still the top contender as the leader of the stat model, ranking No. 1 in the field in Opportunities Gained and proximity over everyone’s most recent 36 rounds on courses with Poa Annua greens. He’s also third in GIR Gained and second in SG: Approach. He was T3 in the Frys.com Open played here in 2015 and T17 the following year.

Chez Reavie (+4000)

Reavie is one of the most familiar with the course among those scheduled to tee off Thursday morning. He has made five straight cuts at Silverado resort and spa since 2015, picking up a top finish of T13 in 2018. He ranks second in proximity and seventh in SG: Approach. This is his first event of the new season after finishing eighth at last year’s Tour Championship.

Safeway Open – Tier 2

Emiliano Grillo (+5000)

Grillo’s lone PGA Tour win to date was at the 2016 Frys.com Open. He hasn’t missed a cut in three tries since at Silverado Resort, but he hasn’t finished higher than T26. He’s coming off a T39 at last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship. Grillo is 11th by the stat model with a top rank of third in SG: Approach.

Phil Mickelson (+6600)

Mickelson has been a regular feature at this fall swing event, placing T8 in 2017, T3 in 2018 and T17 last season. He ranks seventh in the field in Opportunities Gained, but he has added motivation while trying to earn a spot on Tiger Woods‘ Presidents Cup team as a captain’s pick.

Safeway Open – Longshots

Wyndham Clark (+10000)

Clark is second in the field in Strokes Gained: Par 5. He was T33 in his debut at Silverado Resort and Spa last fall, but he made it all the way to the BMW Championship before being eliminated from last season’s FedExCup Playoffs. The 25-year-old missed the cut last week, but he made 19 of 27 cuts with three top 10s in last year’s rookie season.

Luke List (+12500)

List has made three consecutive cuts at this venue with a top finish of T4 last year. He missed the cut last week with a poor all-around performance, but he’s one of the best golfers on Tour on par 5s. Scoring on the longer holes is essential here, with all four such holes averaging scores below par last season.

Complete odds

Golfer Odds
Justin Thomas 7/1
Patrick Cantlay 11/1
Adam Scott 14/1
Hideki Matsuyama 14/1
Bryson DeChambeau 22/1
Sungjae Im 22/1
Byeong Hun An 25/1
Collin Morikawa 28/1
Brandt Snedeker 30/1
Francesco Molinari 30/1
Chez Reavie 40/1
Kevin Na 40/1
Lucas Glover 40/1
Ryan Moore 40/1
Kevin Streelman 45/1
Marc Leishman 45/1
Abraham Ancer 50/1
Emiliano Grillo 50/1
Scott Piercy 50/1
Sebastian Munoz 50/1
Bronson Burgoon 60/1
Dylan Frittelli 60/1
Harold Varner III 60/1
Bud Cauley 66/1
Charles Howell III 66/1
Corey Conners 66/1
Harris English 66/1
Phil Mickelson 66/1
Kevin Tway 66/1
Vaughn Taylor 66/1
Adam Hadwin 80/1
Cameron Tringale 80/1
Charley Hoffman 80/1
Daniel Berger 80/1
Kevin Stanley 80/1
Martin Laird 80/1
Troy Merritt 80/1
Brendan Steele 90/1
Cameron Champ 90/1
Jim Furyk 90/1
Nate Lashley 90/1
Austin Cook 100/1
Carlos Ortiz 100/1
Fabian Gomez 100/1
Jhonattan Vegas 100/1
Joel Dahmen 100/1
Lanto Griffin 100/1
Matt Jones 100/1
Nick Taylor 100/1
Robby Shelton 100/1
Si Woo Kim 100/1
Tom Hoge 100/1
Wyndham Clark 100/1
Adam Long 125/1
Adam Schenk 125/1
Andrew Landry 125/1
Brian Stuard 125/1
Brice Garnett 125/1
C.T. Pan 125/1
Doc Redman 125/1
Grayson Murray 125/1
Luke List 125/1
Nick Watney 125/1
Robert Streb 125/1
Sam Ryder 125/1
Sung Kang 125/1
Cameron Percy 150/1
Chesson Hadley 150/1
Danny Lee 150/1
David Hearn 150/1
Harry Higgs 150/1
J.J. Spaun 150/1
Jason Dufner 150/1
Kevin Chappell 150/1
Mark Hubbard 150/1
Pat Perez 150/1
Patrick Rodgers 150/1
Patton Kizzire 150/1
Sepp Straka 150/1
Taylor Gooch 150/1
Anirban Lahiri 175/1
Peter Malnati 175/1
Roger Sloan 175/1
Zac Blair 175/1
Aaron Baddeley 200/1
Beau Hossler 200/1
Krisstofer Ventura 200/1
Mackenzie Hughes 200/1
Max Homa 200/1
Michael Thompson 200/1
Scott Brown 200/1
Scott Harrington 200/1
Brendon Todd 225/1
Bo Hoag 250/1
Brian Gay 250/1
Hank Lebioda 250/1
Henrik Norlander 250/1
Matthew NeSmith 250/1
Ryan Brehm 250/1
Tyler Duncan 250/1
Tyler McCumber 250/1
Ben Martin 300/1
Brandon Hagy 300/1
Chase Seiffert 300/1
Chris Stroud 300/1
Fred Couples 300/1
Jamie Lovemark 300/1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 300/1
Mark Anderson 300/1
Matt Every 300/1
Morgan Hoffman 300/1
Xinjun Zhang 300/1
Chris Baker 400/1
Maverick McNealy 400/1
Nelson Ledesma 400/1
Rafael Campos 400/1
Sangmoon Bae 400/1
Satoshi Kodaira 400/1
Sebastian Cappelen 400/1
Vincent Whaley 400/1
Ben Taylor 500/1
Akshay Bhatia 500/1
John Huh 500/1
Michael Gligic 500/1
Rhein Gibson 500/1
Ricky Barnes 500/1
Vince Covello 500/1
Bo Van Pelt 750/1
Colt Knost 750/1
Martin Trainer 750/1
Michael Kim 750/1
Isaiah Salinda 1,000/1
John Daly 1,000/1
Kevin Stadler 1,000/1
Stuard L. Smith 1,000/1
Tony Romo 3,000/1

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